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Celtic vs Red Bull Salzburg — UEFA Europa League 2026

Celtic
Celtic
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
11/27/2014UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group stage - 5Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Celtic64%
×Draw19%
Red Bull Salzburg18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic
2.38
Red Bull Salzburg
1.18

Celtic creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Celtic
2.15
Red Bull Salzburg
1.31

allows per match

Celtic
1.05
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60

finishing

Celtic-0.75scores less
Red Bull Salzburg-0.71scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Celtic or draw
82%
Celtic or Red Bull Salzburg
81%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
36%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+
41%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals
91%
Celtic 2+ goals
68%
Celtic 3+ goals
42%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
69%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
33%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)
78%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.05 · 5 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 2.15 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.38

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.31 + Celtic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Celtic scores more
64%
level
19%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
18%

Celtic at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celtic vs Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg beat Celtic 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on November 27, 2014.

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.