Celtic 3–1 Inverness CT: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Celtic

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Inverness CT

Jota 90+1'

L. Abada 65'

K. Furuhashi 38'

D. Mackay 84'

6/3/2023

FA Cup · FinalHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Celtic65%

×Draw18%

Inverness CT17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.28

Celtic

2.59

Inverness CT

1.28

Celtic creates 102% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

3.38

creates per match

2.10

0.46

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Celtic

3.38

Inverness CT

2.10

allows per match

Celtic

0.46

Inverness CT

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

83%

Celtic or Inverness CT

82%

Draw or Inverness CT

35%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

44%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

92%

Celtic 2+ goals

73%

Celtic 3+ goals

47%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

72%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

37%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

79%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 3.38 + Inverness CT defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.59

Inverness CT attack 2.10 + Celtic defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Celtic scores more

65%

level

18%

Inverness CT scores more

17%

Celtic at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

K. Furuhashi↳ M. O'Riley

44'

David Carson

46'

L. Abada← D. Maeda

59'

Oh Hyeon-Gyu← K. Furuhashi

65'

L. Abada↳ C. McGregor

68'

D. Mackay← J. Henderson

70'

Wallace Duffy

75'

Z. Delaney← D. Devine

75'

A. Samuels← B. McKay

76'

D. Turnbull← M. ORiley

76'

S. Hakšabanović← R. Hatate

81'

R. MacGregor← S. Allardice

81'

A. Doran← N. Shaw

84'

D. Mackay↳ W. Duffy

90+2'

J. Forrest← Jota

90+1'

Jota↳ L. Abada

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CelticInverness

Overview

72%Possession28%

15Total Shots2

4Corners0

7Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots2

6On Target1

6Off Target0

3Blocked1

Passing

72%Possession28%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls5

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1