Celtic 3–1 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

Celtic

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Heart Of Midlothian

5/16/2026

Premiership · Championship Group - 38Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Celtic46%

×Draw25%

Heart Of Midlothian28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.14

Celtic

1.53

Heart Of Midlothian

1.14

Celtic creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.08

creates per match

1.60

0.67

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Celtic

2.08

Heart Of Midlothian

1.60

allows per match

Celtic

0.67

Heart Of Midlothian

0.98

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Celtic-0.08on par

Heart Of Midlothian-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

72%

Celtic or Heart Of Midlothian

75%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

54%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

23%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

78%

Celtic 2+ goals

45%

Celtic 3+ goals

20%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

68%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

32%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

62%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 2.08 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.53

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.60 + Celtic defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Celtic scores more

46%

level

25%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

28%

Celtic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff