Celtic 1–1 Dunfermline: Result & Stats | League Cup

Celtic

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dunfermline

8/17/2019

League Cup · 2nd RoundCeltic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Celtic55%

×Draw21%

Dunfermline24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.33

Celtic

2.11

Dunfermline

1.33

Celtic creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

3.00

creates per match

1.94

0.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Celtic

3.00

Dunfermline

1.94

allows per match

Celtic

0.73

Dunfermline

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Dunfermline →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

76%

Celtic or Dunfermline

79%

Draw or Dunfermline

45%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

33%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

88%

Celtic 2+ goals

62%

Celtic 3+ goals

35%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

74%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

38%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

70%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 3.00 + Dunfermline defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dunfermline attack 1.94 + Celtic defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Celtic scores more

55%

level

21%

Dunfermline scores more

24%

Celtic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff