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Celtic vs Buckie Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Celtic
Celtic
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
1/21/2024FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundCeltic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Celtic67%
×Draw18%
Buckie Thistle15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic
2.40
Buckie Thistle
1.05

Celtic creates 129% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Celtic
3.38
Buckie Thistle
1.64

allows per match

Celtic
0.46
Buckie Thistle
1.43

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Celtic or draw
85%
Celtic or Buckie Thistle
82%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
33%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+
44%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals
91%
Celtic 2+ goals
69%
Celtic 3+ goals
42%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
65%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
28%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)
82%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 3.38 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.40

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Celtic defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Celtic scores more
67%
level
18%
Buckie Thistle scores more
15%

Celtic at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celtic vs Buckie Thistle

Celtic beat Buckie Thistle 5-0 in FA Cup on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.