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Celtic U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Celtic U19
Celtic U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
10/25/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Excelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Celtic U1926%
×Draw24%
Shakhtar Donetsk U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic U19
1.16
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.72

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Celtic U19
0.50
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
0.94

allows per match

Celtic U19
2.50
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.81

finishing

Celtic U19+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Celtic U19 or draw
50%
Celtic U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
76%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
74%

Winning margin

Celtic U19 wins by 2+
10%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Celtic U19 1+ goals
69%
Celtic U19 2+ goals
32%
Celtic U19 3+ goals
11%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
82%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
51%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Celtic U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic U19 attack 0.50 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 0.94 + Celtic U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Celtic U19 scores more
26%
level
24%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
50%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celtic U19 0 – 1 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 beat Celtic U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Excelsior Stadium in Airdrie.