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Celtic U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Celtic U19
Celtic U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
10/11/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Excelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Celtic U1923%
×Draw24%
RB Leipzig U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic U19
1.06
RB Leipzig U19
1.75

RB Leipzig U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Celtic U19
0.50
RB Leipzig U19
1.00

allows per match

Celtic U19
2.50
RB Leipzig U19
1.62

finishing

Celtic U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Celtic U19 or draw
47%
Celtic U19 or RB Leipzig U19
76%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
77%

Winning margin

Celtic U19 wins by 2+
8%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Celtic U19 1+ goals
65%
Celtic U19 2+ goals
29%
Celtic U19 3+ goals
9%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
83%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
52%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Celtic U19 (draw refunded)
30%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic U19 attack 0.50 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.06

RB Leipzig U19 attack 1.00 + Celtic U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Celtic U19 scores more
23%
level
24%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
53%

RB Leipzig U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celtic U19 0 – 2 RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Celtic U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 11, 2022.

The match was played at Excelsior Stadium in Airdrie.