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Celta de Vigo III vs Somozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Somozas
Somozas
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Celta de Vigo III46%
×Draw25%
Somozas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo III
1.61
Somozas
1.25

Celta de Vigo III creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 109 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III
2.03
Somozas
1.05

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III
1.44
Somozas
1.20

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par
Somozas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

Somozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw
70%
Celta de Vigo III or Somozas
75%
Draw or Somozas
54%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
23%
Somozas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
80%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
48%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
22%
Somozas 1+ goals
71%
Somozas 2+ goals
36%
Somozas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
61%
Somozas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Somozas away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.03 + Somozas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.61

Somozas attack 1.05 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more
46%
level
25%
Somozas scores more
30%

Celta de Vigo III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celta de Vigo III 0 – 0 Somozas

Celta de Vigo III and Somozas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.