Celta de Vigo III 3–2 CD Lugo B: Result & Stats

Celta de Vigo III

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CD Lugo B

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Celta de Vigo III44%

×Draw24%

CD Lugo B32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIIExpected goals in this matchCD Lugo B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Celta de Vigo III

1.65

CD Lugo B

1.36

Celta de Vigo III creates 21% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 94 away

2.03

creates per match

1.28

1.44

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III

2.03

CD Lugo B

1.28

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III

1.44

CD Lugo B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

CD Lugo B →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw

68%

Celta de Vigo III or CD Lugo B

76%

Draw or CD Lugo B

56%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

23%

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

81%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

49%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

23%

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

74%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

39%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

58%

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.03 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.65

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more

44%

level

24%

CD Lugo B scores more

32%

Celta de Vigo III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff