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Celta de Vigo III vs Boiro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boiro
Boiro
Fran Lopez 17' (pen)
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Celta de Vigo III43%
×Draw25%
Boiro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo III
1.53
Boiro
1.28

Celta de Vigo III creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III
2.03
Boiro
1.12

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III
1.44
Boiro
1.03

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par
Boiro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

Boiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw
68%
Celta de Vigo III or Boiro
75%
Draw or Boiro
57%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
21%
Boiro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
78%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
45%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
20%
Boiro 1+ goals
72%
Boiro 2+ goals
37%
Boiro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
57%
Boiro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Boiro away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.03 + Boiro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.53

Boiro attack 1.12 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more
43%
level
25%
Boiro scores more
32%

Celta de Vigo III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Fran LopezPenalty
Celta
Boiro
Martín Blanco
Manager: Martín Blanco
José Tizón
Manager: José Tizón

Celta de Vigo III 1 – 0 Boiro

Celta de Vigo III beat Boiro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: Fran Lopez (17' pen).

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.