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Celta de Vigo III vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Instalaciones Deportivas da Madroa - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Celta de Vigo III54%
×Draw23%
Arzúa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo III
1.88
Arzúa
1.15

Celta de Vigo III creates 63% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 79 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo III
2.03
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Celta de Vigo III
1.44
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo III ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo III or draw
77%
Celta de Vigo III or Arzúa
77%
Draw or Arzúa
46%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
31%
Arzúa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
85%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
56%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
29%
Arzúa 1+ goals
68%
Arzúa 2+ goals
32%
Arzúa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
70%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo III at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo III attack 2.03 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.88

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Celta de Vigo III scores more
54%
level
23%
Arzúa scores more
23%

Celta de Vigo III at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo III 4–1 Arzúa

Celta de Vigo III beat Arzúa 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas da Madroa - Campo 2 in Vigo.