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Celta de Vigo II vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
1/31/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Celta de Vigo II48%
×Draw26%
Unionistas de Salamanca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.48
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.02

Celta de Vigo II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 106 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
74%
Celta de Vigo II or Unionistas de Salamanca
74%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
52%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
24%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
77%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
43%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
19%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
64%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
65%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
48%
level
26%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
26%

Celta de Vigo II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 2–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Celta de Vigo II beat Unionistas de Salamanca 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.