Celta de Vigo II 1–2 Real Sociedad II

Celta de Vigo II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Sociedad II

Dani González 90+2'

Ekain Azkune 9'

B. Fiabema 6'

11/26/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Celta de Vigo II43%

×Draw28%

Real Sociedad II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.02

Celta de Vigo II

1.30

Real Sociedad II

1.02

Celta de Vigo II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 38 away

1.68

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.68

Real Sociedad II

0.92

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

Real Sociedad II

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw

71%

Celta de Vigo II or Real Sociedad II

72%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

57%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

20%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

73%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

37%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

14%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

64%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

27%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

60%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more

43%

level

28%

Real Sociedad II scores more

29%

Celta de Vigo II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

9'

35'

61'

61'

Alberto Dadie← Ekain Azkune

61'

Ekain Orobengoa← B. Fiabema

62'

A. Dadie Izagirre

65'

Fer López← Miguel Román

65'

Joel López← Manu Fernández

69'

Arkaitz Mariezkurrena← Mikel Goti

69'

Unax Agote← Ander Zoilo

70'

Lucas Antañón← Javi Rueda

71'

A. Mariezkurrena

77'

Dani González← Pablo Durán

77'

Martín Conde← Raúl Blanco

86'

J. Aramburu← Luken Beitia

89'

E. Orobengoa

90+2'

Dani González

Celta

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fiabema

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Claudio Giráldez

65'▲Fer López←▼Miguel Román

65'▲Joel López←▼Manu Fernández

70'▲Lucas Antañón←▼Javi Rueda

77'▲Dani González←▼Pablo Durán

77'▲Martín Conde←▼Raúl Blanco

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

LópezLópezAntañónGonzálezCondeIglesiasFernándezCarrilloReyDomínguez

Manager: Sergio Francisco

61'▲Alberto Dadie←▼Ekain Azkune

61'▲Ekain Orobengoa←▼B. Fiabema

69'▲Arkaitz Mariezkurrena←▼Mikel Goti

69'▲Unax Agote←▼Ander Zoilo

86'▲J. Aramburu←▼Luken Beitia

Real Sociedad II substitutes

DadieOrobengoaMariezkurrenaAgoteAramburuLebarbierGarcíaAstigarragaGalindoOchiengBalda

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Celta de Vigo II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 26, 2023.

Goals: B. Fiabema (6'), Ekain Azkune (9'), Dani González (90+2').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.

Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II