Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Celta de Vigo II vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
9/19/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Celta de Vigo II41%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.44
Racing Santander
1.29

Celta de Vigo II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 19 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Racing Santander
1.47

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Racing Santander
1.21

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
66%
Celta de Vigo II or Racing Santander
74%
Draw or Racing Santander
59%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
19%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
76%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
42%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
18%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
72%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
37%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
55%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Racing Santander defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Racing Santander attack 1.47 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
41%
level
26%
Racing Santander scores more
34%

Celta de Vigo II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Racing Santander

Celta de Vigo II beat Racing Santander 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.