Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Celta de Vigo II vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
1/22/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Celta de Vigo II50%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.70
Linares Deportivo
1.15

Celta de Vigo II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 18 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Linares Deportivo
1.17

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Linares Deportivo
1.72

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
74%
Celta de Vigo II or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
50%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
27%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
82%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
51%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
24%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
32%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
66%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.70

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
50%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
26%

Celta de Vigo II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Linares Deportivo

Celta de Vigo II beat Linares Deportivo 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo.