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Celta de Vigo II vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
2/23/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Celta de Vigo II61%
×Draw23%
Las Palmas II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.74
Las Palmas II
0.76

Celta de Vigo II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
84%
Celta de Vigo II or Las Palmas II
77%
Draw or Las Palmas II
39%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
35%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
82%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
52%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
25%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
53%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
18%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
79%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.74

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
61%
level
23%
Las Palmas II scores more
16%

Celta de Vigo II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Las Palmas II

Celta de Vigo II beat Las Palmas II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.