Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Celta de Vigo II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fuenlabrada

5/7/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Celta de Vigo II55%

×Draw25%

Fuenlabrada20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.85

Celta de Vigo II

1.59

Fuenlabrada

0.85

Celta de Vigo II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 38 away

1.68

creates per match

0.58

1.12

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.68

Fuenlabrada

0.58

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

Fuenlabrada

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw

80%

Celta de Vigo II or Fuenlabrada

75%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

45%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

29%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

80%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

47%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

21%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

57%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

21%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

73%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more

55%

level

25%

Fuenlabrada scores more

20%

Celta de Vigo II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff