Celta de Vigo II 2–2 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Celta de Vigo II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Barakaldo

Manu Fernández 19'

Johan Guedes 8'

Kepa Uriarte 46'

Ekaitz Molina 35'

8/25/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Celta de Vigo II45%

×Draw26%

Barakaldo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.10

Celta de Vigo II

1.46

Barakaldo

1.10

Celta de Vigo II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 38 away

1.68

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.68

Barakaldo

1.08

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

Barakaldo

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw

71%

Celta de Vigo II or Barakaldo

74%

Draw or Barakaldo

55%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

22%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

77%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

43%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

18%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

67%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

30%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

61%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more

45%

level

26%

Barakaldo scores more

29%

Celta de Vigo II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Johan Guedes

15'

B. de Jesus

19'

27'

29'

35'

40'

46'

David Dela← Andrés Antañón

46'

Sergio Díez← Moha Dahmouni

46'

Kepa Uriarte

47'

Tincho

60'

M. Harrouch Sannadi

65'

Aimar Vicandi← Kepa Uriarte

65'

Jesús← Beñat de Jesús

71'

E. Rodríguez← Johan Guedes

78'

Pablo Meixús← Gael Alonso

80'

Iago Barreiros← Fer López

85'

Adrián Revilla← Maroan Sannadi

85'

Unai Buján← Pablo Santiago

Celta

Barakaldo

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fredi

46'▲David Dela←▼Andrés Antañón

46'▲Sergio Díez←▼Moha Dahmouni

71'▲E. Rodríguez←▼Johan Guedes

78'▲Pablo Meixús←▼Gael Alonso

80'▲Iago Barreiros←▼Fer López

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

DelaDíezRodríguezMeixúsBarreirosArcosFernándezBurcioGarrielCondeMarcos

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

65'▲Aimar Vicandi←▼Kepa Uriarte

65'▲Jesús←▼Beñat de Jesús

85'▲Adrián Revilla←▼Maroan Sannadi

85'▲Unai Buján←▼Pablo Santiago

Barakaldo substitutes

VicandiJesúsRevillaBujánMuguruzaIsuskizaTenaArtetxeLópezNaveiraTxoperena

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Barakaldo

Celta de Vigo II and Barakaldo drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 25, 2024.

Goals: Johan Guedes (8'), Manu Fernández (19'), Ekaitz Molina (35'), Kepa Uriarte (46').

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo.

Celta de Vigo II vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Barakaldo