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Celta de Vigo II vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
5/20/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Celta de Vigo II46%
×Draw26%
AD Ceuta FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.52
AD Ceuta FC
1.12

Celta de Vigo II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 19 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
AD Ceuta FC
1.11

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
AD Ceuta FC
1.37

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
72%
Celta de Vigo II or AD Ceuta FC
74%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
54%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
23%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
78%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
45%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
20%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
67%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
31%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
62%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
46%
level
26%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
28%

Celta de Vigo II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 1–1 AD Ceuta FC

Celta de Vigo II and AD Ceuta FC drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo.