Celje 2–0 Rogaška: Result & Stats | 1. SNL

Celje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rogaška

8/13/2023

1. SNL · Round 4Stadion Z'dežele

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Celje59%

×Draw22%

Rogaška20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeljeExpected goals in this matchRogaška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.06

Celje

1.98

Rogaška

1.06

Celje creates 87% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 18 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Celje

1.89

Rogaška

1.00

allows per match

Celje

1.13

Rogaška

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celje+0.00on par

Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celje ↓

Rogaška →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Celje or draw

80%

Celje or Rogaška

78%

Draw or Rogaška

41%

Winning margin

Celje wins by 2+

35%

Rogaška wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Celje 1+ goals

86%

Celje 2+ goals

59%

Celje 3+ goals

31%

Rogaška 1+ goals

65%

Rogaška 2+ goals

29%

Rogaška 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Celje (draw refunded)

75%

Rogaška (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.13 · 126 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celje attack 1.89 + Rogaška defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Rogaška attack 1.00 + Celje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Celje scores more

59%

level

22%

Rogaška scores more

20%

Celje at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff