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Celje vs Mura — 1. SNL 2026

Celje
Celje
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mura
Mura
2/14/20261. SNL1. SNL · Round 22Stadion Z'dežele

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Celje50%
×Draw24%
Mura26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celje
1.67
Mura
1.14

Celje creates 46% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 125 away

creates per match

Celje
1.89
Mura
1.14

allows per match

Celje
1.14
Mura
1.46

finishing

Celje+0.00on par
Mura+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celje ↓

Mura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Celje or draw
74%
Celje or Mura
76%
Draw or Mura
50%

Winning margin

Celje wins by 2+
26%
Mura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celje 1+ goals
81%
Celje 2+ goals
50%
Celje 3+ goals
23%
Mura 1+ goals
68%
Mura 2+ goals
32%
Mura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Celje (draw refunded)
66%
Mura (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.14 · 125 matches

Mura away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celje attack 1.89 + Mura defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mura attack 1.14 + Celje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Celje scores more
50%
level
24%
Mura scores more
26%

Celje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Celje 5–1 Mura

Celje beat Mura 5-1 in 1. SNL on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Z'dežele in Celje.