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Celje vs Jagiellonia — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Celje
Celje
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
Adrián Diéguez 80' (OG)
Juanjo Nieto 53'
D. Zec 7'
K. Hansen 77'
Jesús Imaz 70'
Afimico Pululu 34'
11/28/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Stadion Z'dežele

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Celje51%
×Draw22%
Jagiellonia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celje
1.92
Jagiellonia
1.32

Celje creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Celje
2.03
Jagiellonia
1.22

allows per match

Celje
1.42
Jagiellonia
1.81

finishing

Celje+0.40scores more
Jagiellonia-0.05on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celje ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Celje or draw
74%
Celje or Jagiellonia
78%
Draw or Jagiellonia
49%

Winning margin

Celje wins by 2+
29%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Celje 1+ goals
85%
Celje 2+ goals
57%
Celje 3+ goals
30%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
73%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
38%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Celje (draw refunded)
66%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celje at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.81 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celje attack 2.03 + Jagiellonia defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jagiellonia attack 1.22 + Celje defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Celje scores more
51%
level
22%
Jagiellonia scores more
26%

Celje at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Jesús ImazJagielloniaJagiellonia · M
8.3

Match Events

7'
D. Zec↳ M. Zabukovnik
33'
Juanjo Nieto
33'
Klemen Nemanič
34'
Afimico PululuMissed penalty
34'
Afimico Pululu
39'
Darko Churlinov
53'
Juanjo Nieto↳ A. Matko
57'
K. Hansen← L. Diaby-Fadiga
68'
Nené← J. Kubicki
70'
Jesús Imaz↳ K. Hansen
77'
K. Hansen↳ Jesús Imaz
79'
Edmilson← M. Kvesić
80'
Adrián DiéguezOwn goal
86'
Aurelien Nguiamba
86'
M. Skrzypczak← Tomás Silva
86'
Miki Villar← D. Churlinov
87'
M. Listkowski← Afimico Pululu

Possession

58%Celje

Shots

19Celje

Pass accuracy

50%Celje

Statistics

CeljeJagiellonia
Overview
58%Possession42%
19Total Shots16
2.37Expected Goals (xG)2.99
9Corners3
12Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots16
6On Target7
5Off Target6
8Blocked3
17Inside Box11
2Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
495Total Passes365
416Accurate Passes307
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-1.08Goals Prevented-1.08
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Celje 3–3 Jagiellonia

Celje and Jagiellonia drew 3-3 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Zec (7'), Afimico Pululu (34'), Juanjo Nieto (53'), Jesús Imaz (70'), K. Hansen (77'), Adrián Diéguez (80' o.g.).

Celje controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadion Z'dežele in Celje.