Čelik 1–1 Radnik Bijeljina: Result & Stats

Čelik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radnik Bijeljina

Š. Resić 61'

S. Janjić 40'

3/1/2020

Premijer Liga · Round 21Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Čelik42%

×Draw29%

Radnik Bijeljina29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČelikExpected goals in this matchRadnik Bijeljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

Čelik

1.19

Radnik Bijeljina

0.94

Čelik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 76 away

0.55

creates per match

0.82

1.05

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Čelik

0.55

Radnik Bijeljina

0.82

allows per match

Čelik

1.05

Radnik Bijeljina

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Čelik or draw

71%

Čelik or Radnik Bijeljina

71%

Draw or Radnik Bijeljina

58%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+

18%

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals

70%

Čelik 2+ goals

33%

Čelik 3+ goals

12%

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

61%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

24%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)

59%

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 0.55 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.19

Radnik Bijeljina attack 0.82 + Čelik defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Čelik scores more

42%

level

29%

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

29%

Čelik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

S. Radovic

24'

S. Zuna

28'

S. Bajraktarevic

31'

S. Janjić← V. Đurić

40'

S. Janjić

46'

A. Mahmutović← M. Zeljković

46'

57'

61'

65'

67'

80'

N. Bjeloš← S. Bajraktarević

82'

S. Janjic

90+1'

V. Grahovac

90+2'

V. Vrhovac

Čelik

Radnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Ü. Özat

46'▲A. Mahmutović←▼M. Zeljković

46'▲D. Cenaj←▼S. Žuna

80'▲N. Bjeloš←▼S. Bajraktarević

Čelik substitutes

MahmutovićCenajBjeloš

Manager: S. Petrović

31'▲S. Janjić←▼V. Đurić

67'▲J. Motika←▼Š. Okić

Radnik Bijeljina substitutes

JanjićMotika

Premijer Liga: Čelik 1–1 Radnik Bijeljina

Čelik and Radnik Bijeljina drew 1-1 in Premijer Liga on March 1, 2020.

Goals: S. Janjić (40'), Š. Resić (61').

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.

Čelik vs Radnik Bijeljina — Premijer Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premijer Liga: Čelik 1–1 Radnik Bijeljina