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Čelik vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
9/21/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Čelik68%
×Draw18%
Radnički Lukavac14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
2.29
Radnički Lukavac
0.91

Čelik creates 152% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
86%
Čelik or Radnički Lukavac
82%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
32%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
45%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
90%
Čelik 2+ goals
66%
Čelik 3+ goals
40%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
60%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
23%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
83%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Čelik scores more
68%
level
18%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
14%

Čelik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čelik vs Radnički Lukavac

Radnički Lukavac beat Čelik 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.