Čelik 1–0 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Čelik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GOŠK Gabela

A. Masic 90' (pen)

11/16/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik51%

×Draw26%

GOŠK Gabela24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČelikExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Čelik

1.54

GOŠK Gabela

0.96

Čelik creates 60% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 66 away

2.00

creates per match

1.29

0.62

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Čelik

2.00

GOŠK Gabela

1.29

allows per match

Čelik

0.62

GOŠK Gabela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Čelik or draw

76%

Čelik or GOŠK Gabela

74%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

49%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+

26%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals

79%

Čelik 2+ goals

45%

Čelik 3+ goals

20%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

62%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

25%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)

68%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Čelik scores more

51%

level

26%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

24%

Čelik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

A. MasicPenalty

Čelik

GOŠK

Manager: N. Hukić

Manager: D. Borovac