Čelik 3–0 Gornji Rahić: Result & Stats

Čelik

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gornji Rahić

4/6/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Čelik67%

×Draw19%

Gornji Rahić14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČelikExpected goals in this matchGornji Rahić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.92

Čelik

2.24

Gornji Rahić

0.92

Čelik creates 143% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 29 away

2.00

creates per match

1.21

0.62

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Čelik

2.00

Gornji Rahić

1.21

allows per match

Čelik

0.62

Gornji Rahić

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Gornji Rahić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Čelik or draw

86%

Čelik or Gornji Rahić

81%

Draw or Gornji Rahić

33%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+

43%

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals

89%

Čelik 2+ goals

65%

Čelik 3+ goals

38%

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

60%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

23%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)

83%

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.24

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Čelik scores more

67%

level

19%

Gornji Rahić scores more

14%

Čelik at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff