Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Čelik vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goražde
Goražde
9/2/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik59%
×Draw24%
Goražde17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
1.67
Goražde
0.77

Čelik creates 117% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 82 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
83%
Čelik or Goražde
76%
Draw or Goražde
41%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
33%
Goražde wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
81%
Čelik 2+ goals
50%
Čelik 3+ goals
23%
Goražde 1+ goals
54%
Goražde 2+ goals
18%
Goražde 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
78%
Goražde (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Goražde attack 0.91 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Čelik scores more
59%
level
24%
Goražde scores more
17%

Čelik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čelik vs Goražde

Čelik beat Goražde 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.