Céleste 0–1 Dauphins Noirs: Result & Stats

Céleste

FT

0 – 1

Dauphins Noirs

11/11/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Céleste39%

×Draw31%

Dauphins Noirs30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CélesteExpected goals in this matchDauphins Noirs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.92

Céleste

1.09

Dauphins Noirs

0.92

Céleste creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

0.83

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Céleste

0.83

Dauphins Noirs

0.78

allows per match

Céleste

1.06

Dauphins Noirs

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Céleste+0.00on par

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Céleste ↓

Dauphins Noirs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Céleste or draw

70%

Céleste or Dauphins Noirs

69%

Draw or Dauphins Noirs

61%

Winning margin

Céleste wins by 2+

16%

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Céleste 1+ goals

66%

Céleste 2+ goals

30%

Céleste 3+ goals

10%

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals

60%

Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals

23%

Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Céleste (draw refunded)

56%

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Céleste at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Céleste attack 0.83 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Céleste defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Céleste scores more

39%

level

31%

Dauphins Noirs scores more

30%

Céleste at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Céleste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff