Celaya 1–0 Tapatío: Result & Stats

Celaya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tapatío

4/20/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Celaya47%

×Draw26%

Tapatío27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelayaExpected goals in this matchTapatío

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Celaya

1.48

Tapatío

1.06

Celaya creates 40% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

1.51

creates per match

1.25

0.87

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Celaya

1.51

Tapatío

1.25

allows per match

Celaya

0.87

Tapatío

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par

Tapatío+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Tapatío →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Celaya or draw

73%

Celaya or Tapatío

74%

Draw or Tapatío

53%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+

23%

Tapatío wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals

77%

Celaya 2+ goals

43%

Celaya 3+ goals

19%

Tapatío 1+ goals

65%

Tapatío 2+ goals

29%

Tapatío 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)

63%

Tapatío (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Tapatío away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Tapatío defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tapatío attack 1.25 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Celaya scores more

47%

level

26%

Tapatío scores more

27%

Celaya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff