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Celaya vs Loros Universidad — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Loros Universidad
Loros Universidad
10/20/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Celaya45%
×Draw25%
Loros Universidad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.59
Loros Universidad
1.27

Celaya creates 25% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 6 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
Loros Universidad
1.67

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
Loros Universidad
1.67

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
Loros Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Loros Universidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
69%
Celaya or Loros Universidad
75%
Draw or Loros Universidad
55%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
23%
Loros Universidad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
80%
Celaya 2+ goals
47%
Celaya 3+ goals
21%
Loros Universidad 1+ goals
72%
Loros Universidad 2+ goals
36%
Loros Universidad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
59%
Loros Universidad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Loros Universidad away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Loros Universidad defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Loros Universidad attack 1.67 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Celaya scores more
45%
level
25%
Loros Universidad scores more
31%

Celaya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Celaya 4–0 Loros Universidad

Celaya beat Loros Universidad 4-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya).