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Celaya vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Celaya
Celaya
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
9/1/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Celaya59%
×Draw22%
CA La Paz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celaya
1.90
CA La Paz
0.98

Celaya creates 94% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 64 away

creates per match

Celaya
1.51
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Celaya
0.87
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Celaya or draw
81%
Celaya or CA La Paz
78%
Draw or CA La Paz
41%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+
34%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals
85%
Celaya 2+ goals
56%
Celaya 3+ goals
29%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
62%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
26%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)
75%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.90

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Celaya scores more
59%
level
22%
CA La Paz scores more
19%

Celaya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Celaya 5–0 CA La Paz

Celaya beat CA La Paz 5-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés in Celaya.