Celaya 3–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Result & Stats

Celaya

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

3/30/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Celaya55%

×Draw24%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelayaExpected goals in this matchAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.90

Celaya

1.66

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

0.90

Celaya creates 84% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 124 away

1.51

creates per match

0.93

0.87

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Celaya

1.51

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

0.93

allows per match

Celaya

0.87

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Celaya or draw

80%

Celaya or Alebrijes de Oaxaca

76%

Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca

45%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+

30%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals

81%

Celaya 2+ goals

49%

Celaya 3+ goals

23%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

59%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

23%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)

73%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Celaya scores more

55%

level

24%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

20%

Celaya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff