Ceilândia 2–1 Novoperário: Result & Stats | Serie D

Ceilândia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Novoperário

5/12/2018

Serie D · Round 4Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Ceilândia, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ceilândia56%

×Draw22%

Novoperário21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeilândiaExpected goals in this matchNovoperário

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.07

Ceilândia

1.88

Novoperário

1.07

Ceilândia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

0.65

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ceilândia

1.50

Novoperário

1.50

allows per match

Ceilândia

0.65

Novoperário

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceilândia+0.00on par

Novoperário+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceilândia ↓

Novoperário →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ceilândia or draw

79%

Ceilândia or Novoperário

78%

Draw or Novoperário

44%

Winning margin

Ceilândia wins by 2+

32%

Novoperário wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ceilândia 1+ goals

85%

Ceilândia 2+ goals

56%

Ceilândia 3+ goals

29%

Novoperário 1+ goals

66%

Novoperário 2+ goals

29%

Novoperário 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ceilândia (draw refunded)

72%

Novoperário (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceilândia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Novoperário away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceilândia attack 1.50 + Novoperário defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Novoperário attack 1.50 + Ceilândia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ceilândia scores more

56%

level

22%

Novoperário scores more

21%

Ceilândia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ceilândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff