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Ceilândia vs Goiatuba EC — Serie D 2026

Ceilândia
Ceilândia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Goiatuba EC
Goiatuba EC
Cabralzinho 90'
Daniel Costa 27'
5/30/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ceilândia43%
×Draw28%
Goiatuba EC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceilândia
1.28
Goiatuba EC
0.98

Ceilândia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ceilândia
1.50
Goiatuba EC
1.31

allows per match

Ceilândia
0.65
Goiatuba EC
1.06

finishing

Ceilândia+0.00on par
Goiatuba EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceilândia ↓

Goiatuba EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceilândia or draw
72%
Ceilândia or Goiatuba EC
72%
Draw or Goiatuba EC
57%

Winning margin

Ceilândia wins by 2+
20%
Goiatuba EC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceilândia 1+ goals
72%
Ceilândia 2+ goals
37%
Ceilândia 3+ goals
14%
Goiatuba EC 1+ goals
62%
Goiatuba EC 2+ goals
26%
Goiatuba EC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceilândia (draw refunded)
60%
Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceilândia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Goiatuba EC away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceilândia attack 1.50 + Goiatuba EC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Goiatuba EC attack 1.31 + Ceilândia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceilândia scores more
43%
level
28%
Goiatuba EC scores more
28%

Ceilândia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceilândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Daniel Costa
90'
Cabralzinho
Ceilândia
Goiatuba
Adelson de Almeida
Manager: Adelson de Almeida
Augusto
Manager: Augusto

Serie D: Ceilândia 1–1 Goiatuba EC

Ceilândia and Goiatuba EC drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 30, 2026.

Goals: Daniel Costa (27'), Cabralzinho (90').