Cegledi VSE 3–0 Salgótarján: Result & Stats

Cegledi VSE

FT

3 – 0

Salgótarján

10/18/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 14Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cegledi VSE62%

×Draw19%

Salgótarján18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cegledi VSEExpected goals in this matchSalgótarján

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.17

Cegledi VSE

2.29

Salgótarján

1.17

Cegledi VSE creates 96% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

1.16

1.17

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Cegledi VSE

1.90

Salgótarján

1.16

allows per match

Cegledi VSE

1.17

Salgótarján

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Salgótarján+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Salgótarján →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw

82%

Cegledi VSE or Salgótarján

81%

Draw or Salgótarján

38%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+

40%

Salgótarján wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals

90%

Cegledi VSE 2+ goals

66%

Cegledi VSE 3+ goals

40%

Salgótarján 1+ goals

69%

Salgótarján 2+ goals

33%

Salgótarján 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)

77%

Salgótarján (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Salgótarján away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 1.90 + Salgótarján defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.29

Salgótarján attack 1.16 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more

62%

level

19%

Salgótarján scores more

18%

Cegledi VSE at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff