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Cedar Stars Rush vs FC Motown — USL League Two 2018

Cedar Stars Rush
Cedar Stars Rush
FT
0 – 2
FC Motown
FC Motown
6/24/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 35Fairleigh Dickinson University Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cedar Stars Rush40%
×Draw25%
FC Motown35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cedar Stars Rush
1.52
FC Motown
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cedar Stars Rush
1.90
FC Motown
1.29

allows per match

Cedar Stars Rush
1.52
FC Motown
1.14

finishing

Cedar Stars Rush+0.00on par
FC Motown+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cedar Stars Rush ↓

FC Motown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cedar Stars Rush or draw
65%
Cedar Stars Rush or FC Motown
75%
Draw or FC Motown
60%

Winning margin

Cedar Stars Rush wins by 2+
20%
FC Motown wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cedar Stars Rush 1+ goals
78%
Cedar Stars Rush 2+ goals
45%
Cedar Stars Rush 3+ goals
20%
FC Motown 1+ goals
76%
FC Motown 2+ goals
41%
FC Motown 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cedar Stars Rush (draw refunded)
53%
FC Motown (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cedar Stars Rush at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

FC Motown away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cedar Stars Rush attack 1.90 + FC Motown defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Motown attack 1.29 + Cedar Stars Rush defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cedar Stars Rush scores more
40%
level
25%
FC Motown scores more
35%

Cedar Stars Rush at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cedar Stars Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cedar Stars Rush 0 – 2 FC Motown

FC Motown beat Cedar Stars Rush 2-0 in USL League Two on June 24, 2021.

The match was played at Fairleigh Dickinson University Field in Teaneck, New Jersey.