Cece United 2–2 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

Cece United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

LPRC Oilers

3/29/2024

LFA First Division · Round 24Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cece United31%

×Draw26%

LPRC Oilers42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cece UnitedExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.42

Cece United

1.18

LPRC Oilers

1.42

LPRC Oilers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 75 away

1.12

creates per match

1.60

1.23

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cece United

1.12

LPRC Oilers

1.60

allows per match

Cece United

1.23

LPRC Oilers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cece United+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cece United ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cece United or draw

58%

Cece United or LPRC Oilers

74%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

69%

Winning margin

Cece United wins by 2+

13%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cece United 1+ goals

69%

Cece United 2+ goals

33%

Cece United 3+ goals

12%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

76%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

41%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cece United (draw refunded)

42%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cece United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cece United attack 1.12 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Cece United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cece United scores more

31%

level

26%

LPRC Oilers scores more

42%

LPRC Oilers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff