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CeBra 01 vs UNA Strassen — Cup 2020

CeBra 01
CeBra 01
FT
2 – 3
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
10/17/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundUm Krottepull

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CeBra 0114%
×Draw13%
UNA Strassen73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CeBra 01
1.74
UNA Strassen
3.88

UNA Strassen creates 123% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

CeBra 01
2.33
UNA Strassen
4.08

allows per match

CeBra 01
3.67
UNA Strassen
1.15

finishing

CeBra 01+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CeBra 01 ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

CeBra 01 or draw
27%
CeBra 01 or UNA Strassen
87%
Draw or UNA Strassen
86%

Winning margin

CeBra 01 wins by 2+
6%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

CeBra 01 1+ goals
82%
CeBra 01 2+ goals
52%
CeBra 01 3+ goals
25%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
98%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
89%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

CeBra 01 (draw refunded)
16%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CeBra 01 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 4.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CeBra 01 attack 2.33 + UNA Strassen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

UNA Strassen attack 4.08 + CeBra 01 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

CeBra 01 scores more
14%
level
13%
UNA Strassen scores more
73%

UNA Strassen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CeBra 01 2–3 UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat CeBra 01 3-2 in Cup on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Um Krottepull in Gilsdorf.