CeBra 01 4–2 Jeunesse Junglinster: Result & Stats

CeBra 01

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Jeunesse Junglinster

10/1/2022

Cup · 2nd RoundComplexe Sportif Boy Konen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CeBra 0126%

×Draw17%

Jeunesse Junglinster57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeBra 01Expected goals in this matchJeunesse Junglinster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

3.21

CeBra 01

2.17

Jeunesse Junglinster

3.21

Jeunesse Junglinster creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

2.75

3.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

CeBra 01

2.33

Jeunesse Junglinster

2.75

allows per match

CeBra 01

3.67

Jeunesse Junglinster

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CeBra 01+0.00on par

Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CeBra 01 ↓

Jeunesse Junglinster →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

CeBra 01 or draw

43%

CeBra 01 or Jeunesse Junglinster

83%

Draw or Jeunesse Junglinster

74%

Winning margin

CeBra 01 wins by 2+

13%

Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

CeBra 01 1+ goals

89%

CeBra 01 2+ goals

64%

CeBra 01 3+ goals

36%

Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals

96%

Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals

82%

Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

CeBra 01 (draw refunded)

31%

Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CeBra 01 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Jeunesse Junglinster away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CeBra 01 attack 2.33 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 2.75 + CeBra 01 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

CeBra 01 scores more

26%

level

17%

Jeunesse Junglinster scores more

57%

Jeunesse Junglinster at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jeunesse Junglinster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff