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Ceares vs Vallobín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ceares
Ceares
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vallobín
Vallobín
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ceares52%
×Draw25%
Vallobín23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceares
1.56
Vallobín
0.93

Ceares creates 68% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ceares
1.25
Vallobín
0.68

allows per match

Ceares
1.17
Vallobín
1.86

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par
Vallobín+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

Vallobín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ceares or draw
77%
Ceares or Vallobín
75%
Draw or Vallobín
48%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+
27%
Vallobín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals
79%
Ceares 2+ goals
46%
Ceares 3+ goals
21%
Vallobín 1+ goals
61%
Vallobín 2+ goals
24%
Vallobín 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)
70%
Vallobín (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Vallobín away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + Vallobín defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vallobín attack 0.68 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ceares scores more
52%
level
25%
Vallobín scores more
23%

Ceares at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceares vs Vallobín

Ceares beat Vallobín 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Cruz in Gijón.