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Ceares vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ceares
Ceares
CANC
00:00
San Martín
San Martín
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Ceares43%
×Draw26%
San Martín31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceares
1.40
San Martín
1.15

Ceares creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ceares
1.25
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Ceares
1.17
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ceares or draw
69%
Ceares or San Martín
74%
Draw or San Martín
57%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+
20%
San Martín wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals
75%
Ceares 2+ goals
41%
Ceares 3+ goals
17%
San Martín 1+ goals
68%
San Martín 2+ goals
32%
San Martín 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)
58%
San Martín (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Martín attack 1.12 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceares scores more
43%
level
26%
San Martín scores more
31%

Ceares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceares vs San Martín — Match Preview

Ceares face San Martín on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ceares host San Martín at Estadio La Cruz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.