Ceará W 0–6 Flamengo W: Result & Stats

Ceará W

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Flamengo W

Thaisa 63'

Darlene 53', 4'

S. Jaimes 45+1'

Giovanna Crivelari 42', 22'

3/26/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ceará W13%

×Draw16%

Flamengo W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceará WExpected goals in this matchFlamengo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.66

Ceará W

1.05

Flamengo W

2.66

Flamengo W creates 153% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 68 away

0.71

creates per match

1.32

4.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ceará W

0.71

Flamengo W

1.32

allows per match

Ceará W

4.00

Flamengo W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceará W+0.00on par

Flamengo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceará W ↓

Flamengo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ceará W or draw

29%

Ceará W or Flamengo W

84%

Draw or Flamengo W

87%

Winning margin

Ceará W wins by 2+

4%

Flamengo W wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Ceará W 1+ goals

65%

Ceará W 2+ goals

28%

Ceará W 3+ goals

9%

Flamengo W 1+ goals

93%

Flamengo W 2+ goals

74%

Flamengo W 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Ceará W (draw refunded)

15%

Flamengo W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceará W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 4.00 · 7 matches

Flamengo W away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceará W attack 0.71 + Flamengo W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Flamengo W attack 1.32 + Ceará W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ceará W scores more

13%

level

16%

Flamengo W scores more

71%

Flamengo W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

22'

40'

42'

45+1'

46'

Verônica← Emilly Kaillany

53'

Darlene

55'

61'

Mariana Vitória← Elena

61'

61'

63'

64'

64'

Gisseli← Jucinara

64'

Rayanne← Monalisa Belém

68'

Liliane← Karen

78'

Kaylaine Júnior← Cris

78'

Leidiane← S. Jaimes

Ceará

Flamengo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Lopes

46'▲Verônica←▼Emilly Kaillany

61'▲Mariana Vitória←▼Elena

61'▲Monique←▼Bia Alves

61'▲Sarah Santos←▼Ester

68'▲Liliane←▼Karen

Ceará W substitutes

VerônicaVitóriaMoniqueSantosLilianeMirianLuizaBárbaraCrisGabizinhaOliveiraQuesia

Manager: Luís Andrade

64'▲Daiane←▼Thaís Regina

64'▲Gisseli←▼Jucinara

64'▲Rayanne←▼Monalisa Belém

78'▲Kaylaine Júnior←▼Cris

78'▲Leidiane←▼S. Jaimes

Flamengo W substitutes

DaianeGisseliRayanneJúniorLeidianeGicaAlves