Ceara 1–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ceara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nautico Recife

8/25/2017

Serie B · Round 22Arena Castelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Ceara49%

×Draw24%

Nautico Recife27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.16

Ceara

1.65

Nautico Recife

1.16

Ceara creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

1.32

0.99

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Ceara

1.29

Nautico Recife

1.32

allows per match

Ceara

0.99

Nautico Recife

2.01

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

Ceara-0.18scores less

Nautico Recife+0.68scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

73%

Ceara or Nautico Recife

76%

Draw or Nautico Recife

51%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

26%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

81%

Ceara 2+ goals

49%

Ceara 3+ goals

23%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

69%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

32%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

64%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.99 · 9 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.29 + Nautico Recife defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Ceara defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ceara scores more

49%

level

24%

Nautico Recife scores more

27%

Ceara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff