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Ceara vs Bahia — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
9/20/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 24Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Ceara45%
×Draw28%
Bahia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.35
Bahia
0.98

Ceara creates 38% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 141 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.11
Bahia
1.00

allows per match

Ceara
0.96
Bahia
1.60

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
73%
Ceara or Bahia
72%
Draw or Bahia
55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
21%
Bahia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
74%
Ceara 2+ goals
39%
Ceara 3+ goals
15%
Bahia 1+ goals
62%
Bahia 2+ goals
26%
Bahia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
62%
Bahia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.96 · 114 matches

Bahia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.11 + Bahia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bahia attack 1.00 + Ceara defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more
45%
level
28%
Bahia scores more
27%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceara 1 – 1 Bahia

Ceara and Bahia drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.