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Ceara vs Altos — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Altos
Altos
2/11/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 2Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ceara64%
×Draw22%
Altos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.84
Altos
0.73

Ceara creates 152% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.97
Altos
0.71

allows per match

Ceara
0.76
Altos
1.71

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
Altos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Altos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
86%
Ceara or Altos
78%
Draw or Altos
36%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
38%
Altos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
84%
Ceara 2+ goals
55%
Ceara 3+ goals
28%
Altos 1+ goals
52%
Altos 2+ goals
17%
Altos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
82%
Altos (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

Altos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.97 + Altos defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.84

Altos attack 0.71 + Ceara defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ceara scores more
64%
level
22%
Altos scores more
14%

Ceara at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Ceara 1–1 Altos

Ceara and Altos drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.