Ceara U17 2–0 Atletico GO U17: Result & Stats

Ceara U17

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico GO U17

R. Pacuja 42', 1'

8/6/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6Estádio Franzé Morais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ceara U1767%

×Draw17%

Atletico GO U1716%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceara U17Expected goals in this matchAtletico GO U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.30

Ceara U17

2.73

Atletico GO U17

1.30

Ceara U17 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

1.75

creates per match

0.60

2.00

allows per match

3.70

creates per match

Ceara U17

1.75

Atletico GO U17

0.60

allows per match

Ceara U17

2.00

Atletico GO U17

3.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceara U17+0.00on par

Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara U17 ↓

Atletico GO U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ceara U17 or draw

84%

Ceara U17 or Atletico GO U17

83%

Draw or Atletico GO U17

33%

Winning margin

Ceara U17 wins by 2+

46%

Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ceara U17 1+ goals

93%

Ceara U17 2+ goals

75%

Ceara U17 3+ goals

50%

Atletico GO U17 1+ goals

73%

Atletico GO U17 2+ goals

37%

Atletico GO U17 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ceara U17 (draw refunded)

80%

Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara U17 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Atletico GO U17 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara U17 attack 1.75 + Atletico GO U17 defence 3.70 → ÷2 → 2.73

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.60 + Ceara U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ceara U17 scores more

67%

level

17%

Atletico GO U17 scores more

16%

Ceara U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ceara U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

R. Pacuja

42'

R. Pacuja

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff