Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3–2 Viitorul Şelimbăr

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Viitorul Şelimbăr

P. Petre 90+5'

C. Davordzie 40'

K. Wiktorski 28'

M. Babić 38'

E. Asibey 31' (OG)

9/28/2024

Liga II · Round 8Stadionul Municipal Ceahlăul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ41%

×Draw28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţExpected goals in this matchViitorul Şelimbăr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.30

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.10

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 69 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.38

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.96

allows per match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.24

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ+0.00on par

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or draw

69%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or Viitorul Şelimbăr

72%

Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr

59%

Winning margin

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ wins by 2+

19%

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1+ goals

73%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2+ goals

37%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3+ goals

14%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

67%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

30%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (draw refunded)

57%

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ attack 1.38 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ scores more

41%

level

28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

31%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

K. Wiktorski

31'

E. AsibeyOwn goal

35'

38'

M. Babić

40'

C. Davordzie

46'

C. Cotogoi← R. Gherman

46'

C. Gogor← R. Boboc

56'

C. Bucuroiu← G. Monea

66'

R. Neag← N. Ilaș

66'

R. Ciobanu← C. Davordzie

72'

74'

76'

82'

82'

90+4'

90+6'

C. Gyulai← P. Petre

90+5'

P. Petre

Ceahlăul

Viitorul

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

Petre

▼

Crețu

Gibzie

⚽

▼

Davordzie

Manager: M. Veronese

66'▲R. Neag←▼N. Ilaș

66'▲R. Ciobanu←▼C. Davordzie

82'▲R. Moise←▼M. Şandru

82'▲T. Telcean←▼G. Crețu

90+6'▲C. Gyulai←▼P. Petre

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ substitutes

NeagCiobanuMoiseTelceanGyulai

Manager: C. Schumacher

46'▲C. Cotogoi←▼R. Gherman

46'▲C. Gogor←▼R. Boboc

56'▲C. Bucuroiu←▼G. Monea

74'▲C. Soare←▼D. Olariu

76'▲L. Popa←▼M. Babić

Viitorul Şelimbăr substitutes

CotogoiGogorBucuroiuSoarePopa

Liga II: Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3–2 Viitorul Şelimbăr

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ beat Viitorul Şelimbăr 3-2 in Liga II on September 28, 2024.

Goals: K. Wiktorski (28'), E. Asibey (31' o.g.), M. Babić (38'), C. Davordzie (40'), P. Petre (90+5').

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Ceahlăul in Piatra Neamţ.

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs Viitorul Şelimbăr — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga II: Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3–2 Viitorul Şelimbăr