Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1–1 Concordia: Result & Stats

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Concordia

4/18/2025

Liga II · Relegation Round - 4Stadionul Municipal Ceahlăul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ40%

×Draw27%

Concordia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţExpected goals in this matchConcordia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.17

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.32

Concordia

1.17

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 89 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.38

Concordia

1.09

allows per match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.24

Concordia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ+0.00on par

Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ ↓

Concordia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or draw

67%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or Concordia

73%

Draw or Concordia

60%

Winning margin

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ wins by 2+

18%

Concordia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1+ goals

73%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2+ goals

38%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3+ goals

15%

Concordia 1+ goals

69%

Concordia 2+ goals

33%

Concordia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (draw refunded)

55%

Concordia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ attack 1.38 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Concordia attack 1.09 + Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ scores more

40%

level

27%

Concordia scores more

33%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff