Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2–0 Arges Pitesti

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arges Pitesti

11/23/2023

Liga II · Round 14Stadionul Municipal Ceahlăul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ37%

×Draw28%

Arges Pitesti35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.16

Arges Pitesti

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 61 away

1.38

creates per match

1.02

1.24

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.38

Arges Pitesti

1.02

allows per match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.24

Arges Pitesti

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or draw

65%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or Arges Pitesti

72%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

63%

Winning margin

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ wins by 2+

15%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1+ goals

69%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2+ goals

32%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3+ goals

11%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

68%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

31%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (draw refunded)

51%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.93 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ attack 1.38 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Arges Pitesti attack 1.02 + Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ scores more

37%

level

28%

Arges Pitesti scores more

35%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff