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CE União U20 vs Operário PR U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

CE União U20
CE União U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Operário PR U20
Operário PR U20
4/11/2026Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CE União U2034%
×Draw24%
Operário PR U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CE União U20
1.48
Operário PR U20
1.66

Operário PR U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

CE União U20
1.60
Operário PR U20
1.52

allows per match

CE União U20
1.80
Operário PR U20
1.35

finishing

CE União U20+0.00on par
Operário PR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE União U20 ↓

Operário PR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

CE União U20 or draw
58%
CE União U20 or Operário PR U20
76%
Draw or Operário PR U20
66%

Winning margin

CE União U20 wins by 2+
16%
Operário PR U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

CE União U20 1+ goals
77%
CE União U20 2+ goals
43%
CE União U20 3+ goals
19%
Operário PR U20 1+ goals
81%
Operário PR U20 2+ goals
49%
Operário PR U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

CE União U20 (draw refunded)
45%
Operário PR U20 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CE União U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Operário PR U20 away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CE União U20 attack 1.60 + Operário PR U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Operário PR U20 attack 1.52 + CE União U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CE União U20 scores more
34%
level
24%
Operário PR U20 scores more
42%

Operário PR U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Operário PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CE União U20 vs Operário PR U20

CE União U20 beat Operário PR U20 2-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 11, 2026.